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Authored by: Bradley
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March 2016 Talbot County Real Estate Market Report
A comprehensive report on the Talbot County real estate market.
Year-to-date sale in Talbot County are higher than in the prior 8 years, showing increasing demand and an improving market.
Homes Sold per Month- MARCH2016
The chart below follows the trends of numbers of homes sold during any given month. Last month there were 47 homes sold in Talbot County, Maryland. Almost 5 % more homes sold in March2016 than in March 2015.
HOMES FOR SALE- 2016
The chart below follows the trends of the number of homes for sale during any given month. At the beginning of September, there were 482 homes sale in Talbot County, Maryland. There are 6 percent fewer homes for sale than last year at this time and 131 new listings which is about 7 percent more than last year.
PENDING SALES PER MONTH- March 2016
The chart below tracks the number of Pending Sales in the market. These are homes that are Under Contract that have yet to close. This month there are 107 homes pending in Talbot County, Maryland. This is the most homes under contract in the last 6 years and almost 7 percent more homes under contract than March 2015.
HOMES SALES BY PRICE BAND- March 2016
Overall we are in a Normal Buyer’s Market with 10.26 months inventory. On average, homes prices are showing Moderate Depreciation. However, the Market is different based on demand and the number of homes for sale in each price range.
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Price Range |
# of Homes Sold |
Active Listings |
Months of Inventory |
Market |
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<$50,000 |
0 |
4 |
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$50K to $99,999 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
Extreme Seller’s Market |
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$100K to-$149,999 |
4 |
26 |
6.5 |
Balanced Market |
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$150K to $199,999 |
3 |
26 |
8.67 |
Balanced Market |
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$200K to $299,999 |
15 |
83 |
5.53 |
Normal Seller’s Market |
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$300K to $399,999 |
8 |
65 |
8.13 |
Balanced Market |
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$400 K to $499,999 |
3 |
52 |
17.33 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
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$500K to $599,999 |
0 |
24 |
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$600K to $ 799,999 |
4 |
41 |
10.25 |
Normal Buyer’s Market |
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$800K to $999,999 |
3 |
25 |
8.33 |
Balanced Market |
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$1 M to $2,499,999 |
1 |
87 |
87 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
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$2.5 M to $4,999,999 |
0 |
31 |
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$5 M + |
0 |
6 |
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Total |
47 |
482 |
10.26 |
Normal Buyer’s Market |
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12+ Months of Inventory |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
High Depreciation |
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9-12 Months of Inventory |
Normal Buyer’s Market |
Moderate Depreciation |
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6-9 Months of Inventory |
Balanced Market |
Flat/Moderate Depreciation |
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3-6 Months of Inventory |
Normal Seller’s Market |
Moderate Appreciation |
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0-3 Months of Inventory |
Extreme Seller’s Market |
High Appreciation |
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HOMES SALES BY TOWN- March 2016
The chart below provides details on how well each TOWN is currently selling and impact on home values.
|
Town |
# of Homes Sold |
Active Listings |
Months of Inventory |
Market |
Average Sales Price |
Avg. DOM |
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Cordova |
1 |
17 |
17 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
$211,000 |
271 |
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Easton |
31 |
259 |
8.35 |
Balanced Market |
$263,206 |
168 |
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Newcomb |
1 |
3 |
3 |
Extreme Seller’s Market /Normal Seller’s Market |
$733,000 |
161 |
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Oxford |
4 |
34 |
8.5 |
Balanced Market |
$593,250 |
187 |
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Royal Oak |
2 |
25 |
12.5 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
$376,250 |
350 |
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St. Michaels |
2 |
81 |
40.5 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
$512,500 |
174 |
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Sherwood |
2 |
13 |
6.5 |
Balanced Market |
$190,000 |
320 |
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Tilghman |
2 |
29 |
14.5 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
$292,250 |
522 |
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Trappe |
1 |
40 |
40 |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
$2,200,000 |
268 |
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Wye Mills |
1 |
5 |
5 |
Normal Seller’s Market |
$399,000 |
18 |
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12+ Months of Inventory |
Extreme Buyer’s Market |
High Depreciation |
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9-12 Months of Inventory |
Normal Buyer’s Market |
Moderate Depreciation |
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6-9 Months of Inventory |
Balanced Market |
Flat/Moderate Depreciation |
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3-6 Months of Inventory |
Normal Seller’s Market |
Moderate Appreciation |
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0-3 Months of Inventory |
Extreme Seller’s Market |
High Appreciation |
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ABSORPTION RATE: MONTHS OF INVENTORY IN Talbot County 2009-2015
The Absorption Rate, also called “Months of Inventory”, is the best indicator of how fast or slow home values are moving up or down. The formula is the number of homes on the market divided by the number of homes sold in the prior month. With 6 to 9 months of inventory, the market is called Balance, and home values remain stable with slight decrease or increase as possible. Below 6 months is called a Seller’s Market, as home prices slightly increase due to demand. Above 9 months is called a Buyer’s Market, as home prices slightly decrease due to demand.
Average and Median Sold 8 Year Summary
The chart below follows the trend of average and median sales price per year. Last month the average sales price was $357,817. The median sold price was $270,000 last month. The average sale price in March is up by 15% from a year ago and the medium price is up less than 1 % from a year ago.
Average Days on Market 2009-2016
Of the homes that sold last month, the average amount of days they had been on the market was 199 days. Almost 24 % more days on the market.
Mortgage Rates- 5 Year Summary
We monitor interest rates because they directly affect buying power. The higher the rate, the more it costs for a buyer to buy. When interest rates rise, it has the same effect as a seller raising his price and fewer homes sell because mortgage payments are higher. Conversely when rate decrease more buyers qualify to purchase and home sales usually increase. The chart below tracks mortgage rates for the past 5 years. As you can see, mortgage rates are at close to their lowers lever.
Current Rates
Conforming 30 year. 3.64%
Conforming 15 yr. 2.94 %
Sandy Bradley, REALTOR ®- Proven Process- it predictably gets my clients more money in less time than traditional Realtors.
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Overview:
- More homes sold in 2015 than previous 8 years.
- 47 homes sold in March of 2016 and that is a 5% increase from last year.
- 482 homes are on the market which is 6% fewer homes on the market from last year.
- 107 homes are under contract which is 7% more homes under contract than last year at this time.
- Overall, Talbot County has a Normal Buyer’s Market.
- Average and Median Sales Prices are rising.
- First, the economy as a whole seems to have largely rebounded from the deteriorating financial conditions earlier in the year with the stock market back at 2015 levels along with some commodity prices, narrowing risk spreads, and a decline in the trade-weighted value of the dollar. However, the economists say, even if the dollar continues to weaken net exports will still subtract from growth throughout the rest of the year. The economists say any rate hike at the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is 'off the table." Increasing labor force participation and subdued wage pressure suggest the Fed leadership feels less urgency for the second rate hike and while core inflation has picked up recently the Fed will look for more concrete evidence that such firming will be sustained. Housing positives include a gain for housing starts in February (though this has since been squashed by March's numbers), the first in three months and increasing strength in the single family sector. Despite continuing to trend down after hitting a post-recession peak last June, the multi-family segment remains positive. This is especially important in some energy-dependent markets where new supplies of units were co On the negative side, the report cites a sharp drop in existing home sales in February along with only a modest recovery for new home sales after a drop in that sector in January. New home sales, they say, have moved sideways over the past year and builders' confidence as measured by the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo's Housing Price Index has softened since peaking at a 10-year high in October. That index however did stabilize in March although the forward looking component fell to its lowest level in a year. Fannie Mae points to low inventories as one cause of the softness in home sales, especially lower-priced homes. The inventory of completed new homes remains extremely low by historical standards and that may be discouraging buyer traffic. While housing completions have been increasing from 2010 lows those homes have been concentrated in large and less affordable homes. Rent increases will probably moderate as more new multi-family supply comes on line and that will take some pressure out of core inflation. However again the new supply is tilted toward Class A properties and the tighter supply of lower-rent Class B and Class C units will command larger rent increases, especially for new tenants. "Elevated rental cost burdens will hurt purchase affordability by inhibiting renter's abilities to save for down payments," the report says. Potential first-time buyers are seeing good labor market news. Employment among those 25 to 34 years of age has increased at a healthy pace and their share of the total labor force has risen to the highest reading since 2002 although part of that is based on the sheer numbers in that age group. "A sustained increase in income among young adults, more construction of starter homes, and continued introduction of new loan products geared towards those with low down payments would go a long way toward bringing more potential homebuyers into the housing market. More first-time homebuyers should lead to more trade-up buyers spurring organic housing demand amid declining investor and international demand." SOURCE: Mortgage Daily News